Multan, Sahiwal, Faisalabad, Sargodha, Muzaffargharh etc famous areas of Pakistan for Wheat production.
Report Highlights:
Pakistan's soon-to-be harvested 2016/17 wheat crop is forecast at 25.3 million tons, marginally higher from last year's revised production. The Government has established a procurement target of 6.95 million metric tons, which is expected to raise government-held stocks to around 11 million metric tons at the completion of the procurement season in a few months. Wheat trade estimates are largely unchanged from year to year and Afghanistan remains Pakistan's sole export market, taking 600,000 metric tons of wheat (in the form of flour). MY 2016/17 rice exports are forecast at 4.2 million metric tons, unchanged from the revised current year estimate. MY 2016/2017 corn production is estimated at 5.2 million tons, four percent higher than MY 2015/16 production. The Government of Pakistan imposes a thirty percent regulatory duty and ten percent customs duty on imports of corn.
Wheat
Production:
Wheat is one of the main agricultural crops in Pakistan, with 80 percent of farmers growing it on an area of around nine million hectares (close to 40 percent of the country's total cultivated land) during the winter or “Rabi" season. This crop alone contributed about 10 percent of value added in agriculture and 2.1 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015. Marketing year (MY) 2016/17 wheat production is forecast at 25.3 million metric tons, marginally higher than a year ago. The anticipated good harvest is due to timely planting, greater availability and use of irrigation water, improved quantity and quality of inputs and favorable weather conditions. MY 2015/16 production is adjusted upwards to 25.1 million metric tons, in accordance with latest government of Pakistan figures.
The Government of Pakistan has decided to buy 6.95 million metric tons of wheat from the next harvest against the target of 6.6 million tons in the previous year. The Government has maintained the wheat support price for the MY 2016/17 crop at the last year's level of Rs. 1,300 per 40 kilogram ($310 per metric ton).
Cumulative fertilizer nutrient off-take from October 2015 to January 2016 was 1.9 million tons up 7.7 percent compared to a year ago. Off-take of nitrogen, decreased slightly by 0.2 per cent, while phosphate off-take increased by 27 per cent.
Weather conditions during the current Rabi season were conducive for good crop production. Temperatures during December and January remained in average range; however, major wheat growing areas did not receive significant rainfall until February and March. The late rains could have some effect on yields due to lodging and flattening of the crop in certain areas, a development that is reflected in the current forecast.
About two-thirds of the country's water for irrigation is sourced from snow and glacier melts, with the balance supplied by seasonal monsoon rains. Stored water for irrigation is held mainly in two large reservoirs, Tarbela and Mangla, for use during the summer and during the Rabi/winter growing season.
Since the completion of the nation's irrigation system in the 1970s, demand for water has increased by more than 50 percent, while storage capacity has decreased by about one-third due to silting. During the last two years supplies of irrigation water have been relatively better, but over the long term, Pakistan is likely to face water related challenges. These water challenges, if not addressed, could become a key factor affecting wheat production. Dated farming methods, reduced water availability, dam silting, and an increasing population in the catchment areas of Chenab, Jhelum and Indus rivers have reduced the per capita water availability from 5,000 cubic meters in 1951 to less than 1,000 cubic liters in 2010. 85 percent of Pakistan's wheat production is dependent upon irrigated water.
The effect of water shortages is traditionally more severe in the Sindh province than in the Punjab region. Many parts of Sindh's ground water are alkaline and not fit for irrigation, thereby necessitating a greater reliance on canal water. In the Punjab province, where extensive tube well irrigation is utilized to supplement the canal irrigation, the crop was generally considered to be in normal condition as of March 2016.